The Siena poll showing Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy with a 17-point lead over Chris Gibson is obviously bad news for the challenger in what is still a heavily Republican district, no matter how much the pro-Gibson TU commenters whine about how Siena got the Paladino-Lazio race wrong. (Actually Siena did show Paladino surging, which he continued to do right up to the voting.) Also bad news for Gibson is that on key issues, i.e. health-care reform, the Bush tax cuts and infrastructure spending, voters favor the Democratic position over the Republican.
Gibson should not make Jim Tedisco's mistake of hewing to all national Republican policies, buying the Wall Street Journal editorial line that it's somehow a big vote-winner to insist on preserving tax cuts for those making $250,000 per year and above, or that it's a bad idea to expand health insurance and replace rotting bridges. But unlike Tedisco, whose negative ads sounded harsh and unconvincing when Murphy was a political neophyte last year, Gibson does have something to run against -- and a way to tie Murphy's votes to the highly unpopular New York state government.
Gibson did urge Murphy to vote against this $26 billion bailout for the states, and since then the feds sent another $700 million in "Race to the Top" funding to be dished out by New York's multitudinous education bureaucrats. By spending this money, Murphy and Congress undercut some of the hard budget-cutting work done at the state level this year by Democratic Gov. David Paterson. And, Gibson could argue, they did more to bail out public-sector unions (which his ads could call "special interests") than boost the economy, and put the federal government, in track with the state, further along the road of reckless spending and unsustainable debt.
Nor should Gibson abandon social conservatives -- a key part of his base that he needs to turn out. Murphy's worst vote was against the Stupak amendment to the health-care bill, which could help unite social and fiscal conservatives against him.