No matter how shocked, shocked Gov. Paterson is at the rumor, or Speaker Silver casts doubt on it, they will wind up endorsing and enacting into law an income tax hike (last graf) on New Yorkers earning $750,000 and up. The Empire Center for New York State Policy will denounce the notion, and on Monday will unveil its own budget plan to save $30 billion over the next three years, no doubt containing many sound ideas. But, as Comptroller Tom DiNapoli helpfully points out, the state is broke. (Although his statement that all this "could have been avoided if New York had adopted a more realistic budget last April. Now we see the results. New York dropped the ball. The state’s New Year’s resolution must be to make better budget decisions" would carry more weight if he ever had the balls to, say, annoy the public-sector unions and other interest groups by endorsing specific cuts.)
Anyway, even if the Legislature were to adopt some of the Empire Center's suggestions, it won't do nearly enough of them to close the multibillion-dollar gap, which will remain too large to borrow or b-s away. So, in this upcoming election year, they will tax the rich some more. You can take it to the bank.
Update: This prediction applies whether or not Wall Street bonuses come in higher than until recently had been anticipated. If higher, it will fuel popular appetite for taxing the rich. If lower, it will make the budget hole that much more cavernous and difficult to fill.