Is Tedisco overconfident?

The Jim Tedisco campaign is spinning the Siena poll as "great news," while also noting the candidate "is taking nothing for granted." But the poll shows Kirsten Gillibrand is even more popular in the district than Barack Obama (who carried it), and both of them may cut commercials for Scott Murphy if the national Democratic Party decides to spend enough to make a real fight for the seat. Murphy has only released one TV ad so far, but it is a slick and effective one. When Gillbrand won the seat in 2006, she drew on a lot of support from the national Democratic Party, including the Clinton-connected street fighter Howard Wolfson. Tedisco is plenty scrappy enough, but could use some high-powered help in areas such as TV advertising. His campaign has a heavy contingent of staffers on leave from the Assembly minority office. Assembly Republicans recently mailed out a flier on behalf of a newly elected assemblyman, Tony Jordan, whose Assembly district is within the 20th Congressional District. It's pretty lame. It denounces excessive spending and unfunded mandates without mentioning any specific expenditure or mandate that Jordan is against, while opposing the governor's proposed tax increases and urging cuts in business and property taxes. That doesn't add up to a balanced budget or a persuasive argument, and is not going to help the Republican congressional candidate.